‘Careful optimism’ prevails as Jax businesses eye growth
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‘Careful optimism’ prevails as Jax businesses eye growth

Jacksonville Business Journal, January 16, 2025

Optimism over the state of U.S. business finances carried over into January as small businesses owners look out on the rest of 2025.

Phil Bravo, market president of Cogent Bank’s Jacksonville location, called it “careful optimism” in an interview with the Business Journal, particularly with a new face stepping into the White House next week.

“There may be some changes and it may be fruitful, or it may not be,” he said. “It just depends on what we have going on in Congress, and what we have going on at the federal level. So really, it goes back to just being cautious as you move forward this year and just plan accordingly.”

Bravo advised small business leaders to stay close to their bankers, accountant and financial adviser, ensuring there’s a plan for the next 12 months.

“Knowledge is power, and I think it’s important to take a look at your next 12 months of planning,” he said. “Gone are the days of what I consider to be cheap money, and gone are the days that I consider to be where you’ve got rates that are above market on your savings.”

The state-chartered community bank has nine offices across Florida, including a banking center in Jacksonville. Florida businesses in particular rang in the new year with more optimism about the local and regional economy compared to their nationwide peers, per an outlook survey by JPMorganChase.

More recently, that confidence could originate from the Federal Reserve making a quarter-point cut to its key interest rate in mid-December, its third cut of 2024.

“There is the sense that, OK, inflation might be coming back under control to a certain degree, and I think that spurs optimism,” he said. “From Cogent’s perspective, I would say that most of us feel that this year we’re going to see some growth on the lending side and certainly see some growth on the liquidity side as well, as businesses tend to spend because of slightly lower rates.”

It’s possible the Federal Reserve may either make more rate cuts or not, Bravo said, which influences borrowing versus saving.

Jacksonville has been insulated from negative market shifts because of its location as a hub for health care and logistics, with a healthy labor force, Bravo said. He identified key trends on the First Coast in a stable housing and stable job market.

“We’ve gotten to the point where we have been on the radar for so long with being a great place for younger folks to move into, a great place for certain industries like health care and logistics,” he explained. “And I think Jacksonville has been insulated because we also have the Navy. The Navy continues to be the largest employer here, and then from there is health care.

‘So we really have something special here, where we might be growing every single year because of that.”